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Market Survey, Feedstock Trends and Forecasts
Biodiesel 2020, 2nd Edition (685 pages) is now available via
Biofuels International.
The Biodiesel
2020 study tracks the U.S. and global markets for biodiesel growth, details
major feedstock trends, and provides 5 to 10 year forecasts for biodiesel
demand, consumption and production. Europe, China, India and Brazil are also
covered as case studies. Proprietary forecasts developed for this study are
also used to produce 2020 "scenarios" for the U.S., Europe, China,
India and Brazil.
The 2nd edition of the Biodiesel 2020 study finds the biodiesel
industry is entering a new era of transition to alternative feedstocks,
emerging technologies, and revised government policies favoring
sustainable feedstocks and fuels. Each of these transitions offers
considerable challenges and growth opportunities for biodiesel developers,
producers, feedstock producers, and entrepreneurs. |
Biodiesel Emerges as a Global Industry
"The
global markets for biodiesel are entering a period of rapid, transitional
growth, creating both uncertainty and opportunity. The first generation
biodiesel markets in Europe and the US have reached impressive biodiesel
production capacity levels, but remain constrained by feedstock
availability. In the BRIC nations of Brazil, India and China, key
government initiatives are spawning hundreds of new opportunities for
feedstock development, biodiesel production, and export" said Biodiesel
2020 author and Biofuels International columnist Will Thurmond.
"A fundamental transition in global fuel production is now
happening. In the year 2007, there were only 20 oil producing nations
supplying the needs of over 200 nations. By the year 2010, more than 200
nations will become biodiesel producing nations and suppliers," said
Thurmond. "The world is entering a new era of participation by emerging
market nations in global green energy production for transport fuels."
Growth in Non-Food Feedstocks
Biodiesel
feedstock markets world-wide are in transition from increasingly expensive
first generation feedstocks soy, rapeseed and palm oil to alternative, lower
cost, non-food feedstocks. As a result, a surge in demand for
alternative feedstocks is driving new growth opportunities in the sector.
"Biodiesel growth from non-food feedstocks is gaining traction around
the world," said Thurmond. "For example, China recently set aside
an area the size of England to produce jatropha and other non-food plants for
biodiesel. India has up to 60 million hectares of non-arable land available
to produce jatropha, and intends to replace 20% of diesel fuels with
jatropha-based biodiesel. In Brazil and Africa, there are significant
programs underway dedicated to producing non-food crops jatropha and castor
for biodiesel."
"In the US and the EU, algae-based biodiesel ventures are growing in
response to demands for clean fuels. Each of these endeavors clearly
demonstrates increased public and private sector interest in non-food, second
generation markets," said Thurmond.
Sustainability Concerns Drive Industry Growth
An increasing number of second generation biodiesel projects are now emerging
in anticipation of growing sustainability concerns by governments, and in
response to market demands for improved process efficiencies and greater
feedstock production yields.
"Many
governments are now revising their biofuels policies in a reactive or a
proactive manner," Thurmond notes. "If governments continue to
pro-actively support and promote research & development in second
generation technologies including renewable diesel, BTL biomass to liquids
projects, algae, and cellulosic diesel; and if governments continue to
actively support the development of sustainable, alternative, lower-cost
feedstocks such as algae, jatropha, castor, used vegetable oil, tallow, and
other sustainable feedstocks, the prospects for achieving biodiesel targets
may be realized faster than anticipated. The Biodiesel 2020 study finds
that each of these variables will be essential to achieving biofuels for
transport targets" said Thurmond.
Second Generation Opportunities
As the Europe and US markets transition to larger plants, alternative
feedstocks and 2nd generation technologies, the Biodiesel 2020 study predicts
a consolidation among smaller, first generation producers from 2008-2010,
accompanied by a series of mergers and acquisitions in the field.
"From 2008 through 2020, a series of transitions in the biodiesel
industry will create winners and losers," said Thurmond. "Biodiesel
producers that are best able to evolve and adapt to transitions in
technology, markets, feedstocks and government policies are most likely to
succeed over the long term."
Opportunities and Outlook
The initial results from the study Biodiesel 2020: A Global Market
Survey find that new developers, farmers, feedstock providers, producers,
and investors who can meet growing demands for supply are expected to benefit
from this emerging market.
In addition, this study
finds key advantages in the future will be available to producers and
investors to supply future needs with new and improved technologies;
alternative feed stocks with higher yields such as jatropha and algae
biodiesel; production scalability and flexibility options; supply chain,
distribution and co-location strategies; innovative risk management
strategies; and industry-friendly government targets and tax incentives
committed to promoting the awareness and growth of the industry.
With an eye on the
future, Biodiesel 2020: A Global Market Survey provides forecasts and
scenarios to the year 2020 for the U.S. and European markets as well as the
"big emerging markets" of China, Brazil and India. For Brazil,
China and India, the study includes long-term forecasts and year 2020 scenarios,
each measuring growth in the diesel and biodiesel markets, as well as
focusing on the potential for biodiesel growth. |
